Report: Asian carp could become dominant Lake Erie fish

jackson@sanduskyregister.comSANDUSKYA new study argues that if Asian carp become established in Lake Erie, they will make up about one-third of the mass of living creatures in the lake.But while the new paper appears to confirm other predictions that the fish would become major force in the lake, it falls short of the apocalyptic predictions that have been offered by some observers. The report predicts a minor decline in walleye if Asian carp become established but predicts yellow perch numbers would rise.The new report, entitled "Forecasting the Impacts of Silver and Bighead Carp on the Lake Erie Food Web," has just been published in the latest issue of "Transactions of the American Fisheries Society" and lists 10 scientists as the authors.Although a few Asian carp have been found in Lake Erie, there's been no evidence so far that the invasive fish has established a breeding population in the lake. The fish already has taken over many U.S. waterways.Using various computer models, the paper predicts that if Asian carp became established in Lake Erie, the fish would make up between 29 to 34 percent of the biomass in the lake, about one-third, said Hongyan Zhang, a University of Michigan research scientist.The effect would be particularly strong in the western basin of Lake Erie, said Edward S. Rutherford, another University of Michigan scientist, and one of the co-authors of the paper.Still, in the Mississippi River, 8 out of every 10 pounds of fish are Asian carp. They really have taken over in the Mississippi and Illinois rivers, so1 out of every 3 pounds of fish in Lake Erie would be much less, he said.The report predicts that walleye in Lake Erie would decline about 15 percent, while yellow perch numbers would rise, he said.Rutherford said that Silver Carp are known for jumping out of the water when boats pass over the surface. If they become established in the western basin, jumping carp are likely to be a hazard for boaters, affecting recreational fishing, he said.Scientists have varied widely in their predictions of what would happen if more Asian carp appeared in Lake Erie.Konrad Dabrowski, a scientist at Ohio State University, insists that Lake Erie is too cold for Asian carp. While they would be able to survive in the lake, they would not be able to spawn, and thus do not pose a threat, DabrowskiZhang, a native of China, said she disagrees."The Asian carp can live in really cold water. In China, it's in the far north," she said. It's also found in Russia, she said.She remarked that in China, the Asian carp is considered a tasty food fish, and the Asian carp problem is perceived as being whether enough fish are available to eat.One popular recipe calls for making soup out of the heads of Bighead Carp, she said, although the other kind of carp isn't used. The meat of the Bighead Carp head is very good, she said.Zhang earned her undergraduate degrees at Ocean University of China but obtained her Ph.D. at The Ohio State University. Her master's thesis advisor was an expert in Asian carp, and Zhang has read much of the scientific literature on the fish written in Chinese.While in Michigan, she has concentrated on studying Lake Erie."Lake Erie has a very dynamic system. It has a lot of issues, interesting to explore," she said.FILE - In this June 13, 2012, photo an Asian carp, jolted by an electric current from a research boat, jumps from the Illinois River near Havana, Ill., during a study on the fish's population. (AP Photo/John Flesher, File)Hongyan Zhang. Edward Rutherford