59°Iceless lake concerns scientists
Jan 09
2012
Lake Erie's ice is missing.
It's January, and the area went through a cold snap last week. But people who look out across the lake are still waiting for the usual winter coat of ice to show up.
It's an odd sight, said George Leshkevich, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich.
"I would say at this point in the season, certainly the Western Basin should have a fairly substantial ice cover," Leshkevich said.
The lake's open water during January is part of a trend that's shown up for more than a dozen years, Leshkevich said.
In 1997, the lakes were covered with plenty of ice, but since then the trend has been for less ice covering the Great Lakes, including Lake Erie.
That trend has continued so far during the winter of 2011-12.
Statistics compiled by the Great Lakes lab show that on Jan. 3, there was no ice on Lake Erie. A photograph taken in late December shows no ice on the lake's surface. Leshkevich also noted when ice has formed over the lakes in recent years, the quality of the ice is less than before.
In 2003, Lake Superior was almost completely covered with ice. But it had water on it, it had holes in it and it was not as thick as the ice Leshkevich saw in the 1990s.
Leshkevich tracks ice coverage on the surfaces of the Great Lakes and posts photographs and information about lake trends.
Scientists say the lack of ice could be related to global warming.
Leshkevich said it's difficult to say how much of the decline in ice is because of abnormal climate change, and how much is because of natural variation throughout the years.
"The record we have for ice cover on the lake right now is relatively short," he said.
Two other scientists, however, said they think global warming has contributed to the recent shortage of ice, although they said further research is needed.
Jeffrey Rogers, a geographer at The Ohio State University, is Ohio's state climatologist.
He said there has been a gradual warming in the Lake Erie region throughout the years, although it is not as pronounced as in other places such as Alaska and Siberia.
But Rogers said there's more evidence of another effect of global warming -- more intense rain storms, which last summer dumped large amounts of water on Sandusky area communities and increased runoff into the lake.
Brent Lofgren, a climatologist at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, said less ice covering the lake in winter could mean more evaporation from the lake, which can increase precipitation along the shore.
"We're going to be subjected to a lot rainier winters," he said.
Scientists are debating whether global warming will lower the lake levels, and by how much.
Don't believe the hype about global warming causing huge drops in the elevation of the Great Lakes, Lofgren advised.
"A lot of the predictions about drops in lake levels of large magnitude were kind of due to spin," he said.
It's a complicated problem, said Andrew Gronewold, a hydrologist at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, because it involves factors such as evaporation from the lake, rainfall and runoff that flows into the lake.
It's a problem Lofgren has been wrestling with for years.
A 2002 paper he co-authored suggested during a period of 80 years, under one scenario lakes Michigan and Superior could drop more than 4 feet. Another finding predicted the water level could increase.
Print
Facebook
Twitter
Email
.jpg)
Comments
Share your thoughts and opinions with your community. All comments on our site are governed by our Discussion Guidelines. You must have a valid account to post comments.
03:10 PM
goofus says
Oh OH , there's ice off the Miller Ferry Lime Kiln Dock, can you see it Krusty Kimo?
08:33 AM
pntbutterandjelly says
I say, "Drain the lake so we don't have to worry about the ice". Better yet, "Sell the lake to China".
Could we better use the iceless winter waters by creating a new winter sport? Maybe..."who can last the longest while submerged in 34 1/2 degree water". The problem is, the cold-hearted would always prevail.
Any other ideas????
07:11 PM
Minuteman says
Notice how there is no rebuttal to the right wing nutcases, just name calling and subject changing.
Here's how to settle the climate change caused by man theory. Fly a spacecraft into space loaded with tons of fuel, get it up to lightspeed and take some pictures as it travels ahead in time. Then send it back and check the pictures to see if we're a waterworld or not. I've already got a sailboat, fishing rod, and gadget that converts urine back into beer, so I'm set.
09:13 AM
6079 Smith W says
An early Nov. deep freeze continues to cause problems in Alaska:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203721704577159082850034276.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_5
D*mn that AGW!
Check out the Arctic ice cover:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html
10:15 AM
6079 Smith W says
WARNING: Off Topic.
A morning laugh:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qv7k2_lc0M
10:05 AM
goofus says
El Guano, hope you can read, but the religion totally belongs with the global warmists, it is truly a religion
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/religion.htm
http://townhall.com/columnists/walterewilliams/2010/01/13/global_warming_is_a_religion/page/full/
http://www.globalwarminghype.com/religion.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203935604577066183761315576.html
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/collapse_of_the_global_warming_cult_i6wFd1mBJ
GFmSaY04CI2EL
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-440869/Global-warming-bogus-religion-age.html
Multiple post from different sources as a way of finding one you can trust LOL
10:03 AM
6079 Smith W says
@ El Guapo:
Nice straw man argument - you throw up a ridiculous premise and then knock it down.
It’s the common highly simplistic rhetorical tactic used by your pal, the POTUS. You've learned well.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man_argument
So everyone that doesn't pray with High Priest Al Gore in the Church of Global Warming, must be advocating dirty air, dirty water and the clubbing of baby seals?
(Even Tipper couldn't put up with his sh*t anymore.)
11:13 AM
El Guapo says
I love how Smith and his band of republicans defend pollution and fight against science and reason (global warming) until they are blue in the face. They are completely against what most intelligent people see as common sense things like evolution and global warming all the while following a religion based on a 2,000 year old knowledge base that believed the Earth was flat, it was the center of the universe, etc.. . A religion where the true followers believe the Earth to be a few thousand years old. A religion whose practioners locked up the early scientists who believed the Earth was not the center of the galaxy, sold forgiveness of sins to the wealthy - indulgences, if someone survived a serious injury declared them witches and burned them at the stake, lol.
At least even some of the thickest skulled repubs are now admitting to global warming, just not that humans are the cause. They never claimed to be the sharpest knife in the drawer.
08:58 AM
6079 Smith W says
@ eriemom:
Whether dinosaurs existed and the globe warmed and cooled is based on geological data. It is history.
How and why the dinosaur became extinct and how and why the globe warmed and cooled is open for debate.
Why do numerous plant and animal species, which were precursors to the dinosaurs, still survive?
Whether the globe is currently warming or cooling and whether it is anthropogenic in nature is based on hypothesis and is debatable.
You jump to unsubstantiated conclusions and tend to practice scientism – not science.
07:36 AM
eriemom says
Smith: And yet, the dinosaurs and glaciers did exist. Something did force glaciation and dinosaur extinction. Our planet is warming and we are the force. I find it very odd that you except the scientific evidence about these two events, yet you do not except current evidence.
goofus: I'm sure that you have a thermometer now.
11:21 AM
6079 Smith W says
kimo writes:
"When the satellite pictures showed complete ice cover, I had open water in front of my house."
Provide a link, I'd like to see.
Live on the Lake? You need a low income housing complex nearby to allow the less fortunate to experience the view.
11:18 AM
Kimo says
Re:Jan 2009-Lake Erie completely frozen, first time in several years.
Feb 2010-Lake Erie completely frozen again….
The lake shore is 100 feet from my front room window. I have run the ice for over fifty five years.
Jan 2009: Open water east of KI as far as you could see.
Feb 2010: Ice would blow in and out in front of my house all winter long.
Jan 2011: Open water in front of my house all winter.
I have not been able to run from my house directly to Pelee since 1994.
When the satellite pictures showed complete ice cover, I had open water in front of my house.
09:12 AM
goofus says
Who was around with a thermometer during the glaciers?
08:30 AM
6079 Smith W says
@ eriemom:
As I've written before, you pray at the altar of scientism - not science.
Every single climate scientist in the world agrees what the "avg." temp was during interglacial periods?
H*ll! They can't even agree on what caused the extinction of the most successful species that ever roamed this planet - the dinosaurs! It's all debatable theory!
Different foods grow in all different kinds of climates or they can often be adapted. Are you against generically engineered plant species?
Reading the reports would make me a believer? I read the Book of Mormon - it didn't make me want to become a LDS.
07:27 AM
eriemom says
Nor'easter: Your right. No one event can be said to be caused by our climate changing.
01:30 AM
patriot5 says
01:08 AM
The Big Dog's back says
Ever notice when the right wing nuts comment on these type of stories they are all experts?
11:56 PM
Nor'easter says
12,000 years ago, this area was covered by a glacier that was four miles high. The idea of global warming is being caused by man because the lake hasn't frozen yet this year is absurd.
09:55 PM
eriemom says
Smith; How is this for obfuscation. The average global temperature change between a glacial and an interglacial period is only a couple of degrees. We are moving in the opposite direction. Each time the planet has undergone abrupt change the fossil record shows a major extinction event. Evolution takes place over generations. When looking at individual species, and their ablity to adapt, it depends on life cycles and maturation time for reproduction. Abrupt change does not allow for evolution and extinction can be the result.
The correct temperature is a range that allows us to produce food.
How about giving the topic a break. Just in case I'm right. Read a couple of the studies that have caused climate scientists to speak out. Look for published rebuttals to same.
goofus: It's a trend. Dah!
07:33 PM
6079 Smith W says
@ eriemom:
You're obfuscating. If there's no "correct" temperature to the Earth then what @#$% number are the warmer priests comparing their fear of warming to?
If your priests say that the Earth's temp is gonna rise by one degree over a century, then obviously one degree lower is the "correct" temp no?
How do your priests know what the "correct" temp is?
It's simple logic.
Extinction? You give the ability of organisms to adapt very little credit. What the h*ll is evolution all about then?
When you stop eating meat and adding to the “carbon footprint,” you’ll be closer to not being a hypocrite.
07:17 PM
goofus says
Ice fishing is no longer safe? Well this year yeah! However I must inform my friends who by choice stay on the island the whole winter that the fish caught last year was merely a figment of their imagination, and that the Annual Ice Party between c dock and the Boardwalk never happened. Prediciton, by the end of the month the ice boat will be running and people will be fishing off the state park and downtown.
06:58 PM
eriemom says
Good afternoon goofus. Yes, I usually do.
Global warming, climate change, same thing. Temperatures are rising and water has a high specific heat. The trough that I wrote about a few weeks ago has dipped to Anchorage. It bears watching.
Deniers continue to bot this site and others to make as many people as possible believe that there is no scientific consenses. The are wrong. There is.
Even if you do not want to believe your own eyes, please keep some things in mind.
Lake ice is no longer safe for fishing or whatever.
Do whatever it takes to protect Lake Erie and its ecosystem. We drink it. It is one of a few locations with a natural source of fresh water, and other geographic locations will become dust bowls. As transportation costs increase and the lake has less ice cover it will become the economic asset that it once was.
Smith: Correct temperature? Organisms evolve over many generations to survive in their environment. Climate is a limiting factor to populations. When environments undergo rapid change, extiction is the result. We are a part of the natural world.
06:20 PM
gilamonster says
05:59 PM
gilamonster says
03:07 PM
8ballinthesidepocket says
I am glad I bought a wet suit because it is great water skiing without all those stupid jet skis in the way. I love global warming. Hey, what do you think happened to the glaciers that came through Sandusky millions of years ago? They melted before there was any great incursion by humans. The warming and cooling of the earth has been going on for millions of years so all these "the sky is falling the sky is falling" cuckos out there are full of condensed horse milk. Mankind cannot put into the atmosphere in 10 years what Mount St Helena did in an afternoon. Wake up and get rid of these weirdo nut jobs that blame man for the rising temperature. Meanwhile, I am going water skiing tomorrow.
01:10 PM
wiredmama222 says
Less ice, more evaporation of the fresh water on the lake. Ah, so called global warming rear's its ugly head and appears on the Great Lakes.
I wonder if it IS global warming or if it is a more ominous tilt in the earth and the scientists simply do not tell us the truth. If that is the case, we would be closer to the sun than expected and thus, no ice. The polar cap would be melting faster (it is) and the climate would be warmer (it is) and there is nothing they could do about it (there isn't). Just wondering out loud.
11:59 AM
goofus says
Climatologists, meteorologists, and scientist, they all get paid even if they are wrong. Sure could have used a job like that when I was a youngster. What's the difference from a tv weatherman and a climatologist?
11:45 AM
Phil Packer says
I guess we won't be getting our skating rink any time soon, thanks to global warming.
11:32 AM
6079 Smith W says
There's a whole energy source lying on the floor of the oceans that we haven't even learned to effectively tap yet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate
11:16 AM
Kimo says
The bad news: The iceless lake is costing the gin mills on the Islands a buck or two.
The good news: They don't have to put up with me!
;-))
11:11 AM
Kimo says
10:42 AM
goofus says
Oh those whacky canadians, the place liberals love for their health care went and did this. How dare them
http://pjmedia.com/blog/progress-canadian-senate-listens-to-global-warming-skeptics/?singlepage=true
10:33 AM
SamAdams says
Lake levels down? Global warming. Lake levels fine? Yes, but there's no ice. Global warming. Sheesh!
Is there such a thing as climate change? Absolutely. It's happened repeatedly throughout the ages. Are we currently in the midst of a warming trend? Maybe. Cooling trend? Maybe. Man caused? Only if you fudge the data like has been discovered was done.
Why don't we just continue to work towards less pollution? More technological advances? Energy independence? These things are good things whatever the rationale behind them. But when the rationale gets ahead of everything else, and the rationale itself is subject to doubt, we're putting ourselves square in the midst of those who are inclined to believe the earth is flat or the planet is only 6,000 years old.
10:36 AM
6079 Smith W says
Global warming: So humankind in their infinite wisdom knows exactly what the "correct" temperature of the Earth should be how?
Based on geological evidence the Earth has experienced at least five cooling and warming periods. What was the "correct" worldwide temperature for each of those?
There are numerous advantages to a warmer climate in the northern latitudes if the "warmers" would just open their "chicken little" minds.
http://www.stanford.edu/~moore/Climate_of_Fear.pdf
09:23 AM
goofus says
Good Morning Eriemom, sleep well??
09:15 AM
6079 Smith W says
A plus for the Great Lakes shipping industry.