Obama or McCain? Get the best predictions here

nick
Mar 23, 2010

I just stumbled onto www.fivethirtyeight.com, and it's my new favorite site. If you're a political junkie, a stats geek, and blog aficionado, this site is for you (you are also, apparently, my twin).

It pulls together enough charts and supporting data to make your eyes bleed, and uses sophisticated econometrics techniques to more accurately describe the current political landscape. At a glance (okay, at a longish stare) it gives you a better sense of what's happening in this exciting election than anything else I've seen -- and I'm a sucker for an interactive electoral map).

Nate Silver writes the blog -- he is the author of the algorithm that has recently gained acceptance as the most accurate predicter of baseball outcomes, according to Newsweek. He also predicted the primary election outcomes better than any pollster out there. In case you're wondering, 538 is the number of votes in the electoral college -- I found it in the FAQs, having not caught the significance of the number despite having spent many weeks thanklessly defending the institution in grad school. Check it out.

Comments

Anonymous

Lie #1: Iran is actually miserable this time of year, at least for me. It's in the mid eighties during the day, although the humidity is only around 20%. All in all, I prefer our fall weather here. Plus, the election is coming up, and I wouldn't want to miss that.

Lie #2: You have no idea where my political views land. I said I left the Republican party. I didn't say I don't vote for Republicans.

I'm neither far left nor far right. I vote as an Independent. I NEVER vote a straight ticket. I vote for Independents, Republicans, Democrats, Greens, and Libertarians based on their track records and/or philosophies. I don't care about party affiliations. I vote for the candidate who tries to run a clean campaign, talks to me about the issues, and shows me where he/she is better qualified than his/her opponent. Character assassination just makes me see the accuser in a negative light, especially if the charges are false.

I don't blame McCain for the lies circulating about Obama. He's not the one behind it. As I mentioned before, my once-revered Republican party was moved from the country club to the outhouse, and I couldn't stand the smell anymore. That's why I left. These kinds of attacks on Obama are steeped in racism and fear, and educated Republicans know it. However, our man Bush has made such a shambles of the country (accent on SHAM), they're forced to get their votes by any means necessary. (If you benefit from a lie someone else tells, it's not as bad a sin as actually being the liar, right?)

Lie #3: As for Iran fitting my political views, I am totally opposed to theocracies. Democracy is the only way for me.

The Truth: I'm having a lot of fun arguing with you guys. It would be more fun if you knew how to debate, but it's still a good time. (Hint: A rebuttal is where the debater either debunks the opponent's facts, or introduces a better position.)

Speaking of debating, I don't recall McCain and Obama questioning each other's patriotism. I did not hear them calling each other idiots or terrorists, or suggesting they should renounce their citizenship and move to Iran. That's what a person who lacks intellect does.

I'll say this about Obama, he graduated from Harvard, published the Harvard Law Review, and is currently a U.S. Senator, all before the age of 50. Biden was a Senator at 29. Where did Rush Limbaugh get his degree? Some third-tier state college in Missouri that few have heard of? He has all the answers, why doesn't he run for office?

Answer? He's a drug addict, and is a liability to the Republicans. What about know-it-all Bill O'Reilly? He's your guru, run him for office. It will never happen. He is a known sexual harasser, and is a liability to the Republican party. Your heroes are liabilities to the very party you think you support. (Lie Abilities! Word play! Don't you love it?)

Most of you neocons can't even spell, let alone research your "facts". How are you even qualified to have an opinion? Oh wait. You just blindly parrot the opinions of a drug addict or a pervert. Is that what being an American is all about? (I just questioned your patriotism. See how it feels?)

Anonymous

To Truth about Obama's Book- You sound like a bitter person who follows the far left sound track of MSNBC, etc.
Your hero Comrade Obama seem very much at home with Ayers, Wright and his Chicage mobster friend. This is the same person who has called his own grandmother a racist. Forget Iran, maybe Cuba would better suit your political views, the weather is better.
By the way I do enjoy FOX! Biden was the first one who stated Obama is not ready to be president, strange how he changed his tune.

Anonymous

More Right Wing Lies from Erieman wrote:

'You just blindly parrot the opinions of a drug addict or a pervert.'

Obama has himself admitted drug use and there are sources that say that he was once selling the stuff. How are you not merely voicing support for a former criminal and drug addict?

Anonymous

More Right Wing Lies from Erieman wrote:

'I'll say this about Obama, he graduated from Harvard, published the Harvard Law Review, and is currently a U.S. Senator, all before the age of 50.'

And this 'resume' qualifies him to be POTUS, let alone Erie Co. dogcatcher?

All his Democratic presidential candidate opponents said that that he was inexperienced and unqualified to be POTUS. Were they wrong?

Cheryl

Did you see who McCain is involving in his campaign? look up Timmins and see his connection with Sadam Hussein and you tell me who associates with criminals and terrorists.
GO OBAMA

Anonymous

Louis Farrakhan calls Obama 'The Messiah':

See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O...

Taxpayer

Obama, dangerous for America.

Anonymous

I know everyone has a different opinion on the war and our current President. But, this article makes a lot of sense; take 2 minutes, read it and give it some thought.
When electing the next President, 'the only decision you have to make is who you want sitting in that seat in the White House when - not if - WHEN we get hit again and millions of American lives are put at risk!'
This is from: 'You ain't gonna like losing.'

Author unknown.

President Bush did make a bad mistake in the war on terrorism. But the mistake was not his decision to go to war in Iraq . Bush's mistake came in his belief that this country is the same one his father fought for in WWII. It is not.
Back then, they had just come out of a vicious depression. The country was steeled by the hardship of that depression, but they still believed fervently in this country. They knew that the people had elected their leaders, so it was the people's duty to back those leaders.
Therefore, when the war broke out the people came together, rallied behind, and stuck with their leaders, whether they had voted for them or not or whether the war was going badly or not.
War was just as distasteful and the anguish just as great then as it is today. Often there were more casualties in one day in WWII than we have had in the entire Iraq war. But that did not matter. The people stuck with the Pres ident because it was their patriotic duty. Americans put aside their differences in WWII and worked together to win that war.
Everyone from every strata of society, from young to old pitched in. Small children pulled little wagons around to gather scrap metal for the war effort. Grade school students saved their pennies to buy stamps for war bonds to help the effort.
Men who were too old or medically 4F lied about their age or condition trying their best to join the military. Women doubled their work to keep things going at home. Harsh rationing of everything from gasoline to soap, to butter was imposed, yet there was very little complaining.
You never heard prominent people on the radio belittling the President. Interestingly enough in those days there were no fat cat actors and entertainers who ran off to visit and fawn over dictators of hostile countries and complain to them about our President. Instead, they made upbeat films and entertained our troops to help the troops' morale. A bunch even enlisted.
Imagine this: Teachers in schools actually started the day off with a Pledge of Allegiance and with prayers for our country and our troops!
Back then, no newspaper would have dared point out certain weak spots in our cities where bombs could be set off to cause the maximum damage. No newspaper would have dared complain about what we were doing to catch spies. A newspaper would have been laughed out of existence if it had complained that German or Japanese soldiers were being 'tortured' by being forced to wear women's underwear or subjected to interrogation by a woman or being scared by a dog or did not have air conditioning.
There were a lot of things different back then. We were not subjected to a constant bombardment of pornography, perversion and promiscuity in movies or on radio. We did not have legions of crack heads, dope pushers and armed gangs roaming our streets.
No, President Bush did not make a mistake in his handling of terrorism. He made the mistake of believing that we still had the courage and fortitude of our fathers. He believed that this was still the country that our fathers fought so dearly to preserve.
It is not the same country. It is now a cross between Sodom and Gomorra and the land of Oz. We did unite for a short while after 9/11, but our attitude changed when we found out that defending our country would require some sacrifices.
We are in great danger. The terrorists are fanatic Muslims. They believe that it is okay, even their duty, to kill anyone who will not convert to Islam. It has been estimated that about one third or over three hundred million Muslims are sympathetic to the terrorists cause... Hitler and Tojo combined did not ha ve nearly that many potential recruits. So... we either win it - or lose it - and you ain't gonna like losing.
America is not at war. The military is at war. America is at the mall, or watching the movie stars.

(Remember Obama said in his book 'Audacity of Hope', 'I will stand with the Muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly direction'.....what better place for the Muslins to control our country, than in the office of the President of USA .

Anonymous

" About six months ago, I started thinking "where did the money come from for Obama". I have four daughters who went to College, and we were middle class, and money was tight. We (including my girls) worked hard and there were lots of student loans.

I started looking into Obama's life.

Around 1979 Obama started college at Occidental in California. He is very open about his two years at Occidental, he tried all kinds of drugs and was wasting his time but, even though he had a brilliant mind, did not apply himself to his studies. "Barry" (that was the name he used all his life) during this time had two roommates, Muhammad Hasan Chandoo and Wahid Hamid, both from Pakistan. During the summer of 1981, after his second year in college, he made a "round the world" trip. Stopping to see his mother in Indonesia, next Hyderabad in India, three weeks in Karachi, Pakistan where he stayed with his roommate's family, then off to Africa to visit his father's family. My question - Where did he get the money for this trip? Nether I, nor any one of my children would have had money for a trip like this when they where in college.

When he came back he started school at Columbia University in New York. It is at this time he wants everyone to call him Barack - not Barry. Do you know what the tuition is at Columbia? It's not cheap! to say the least. Where did he get money for tuition? Student Loans? Maybe. After Columbia, he went to Chicago to work as a Community Organizer for only $12,000. a year. Why Chicago? Why not New York? He was already living in New York.

By "chance" he met Antoin "Tony" Rezko, born in Aleppo Syria, and a real estate developer in Chicago. Rezko has been convicted of fraud and bribery this year. Rezko, was named "Entrepreneur of the Decade" by the Arab-American Business and Professional Association". About two years later, Obama entered Harvard Law School. Do you have any idea what tuition is for Harvard Law School? Where did he get the money for Law School? More student loans?

After Law school, he went back to Chicago. Rezko offered him a job, which he turned down. But, he did take a job with Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland. Guess what? They represented "Rezar" which Rezko's firm. Rezko was one of Obama's first major financial contributors when he ran for office in Chicago. In 2003, Rezko threw an early fundraiser for Obama which Chicago Tribune reporter David Mendelland claims was instrumental in p roviding Obama with "seed money" for his U.S. Senate race. In 2005, Obama purchased a new home in Kenwoood District of Chicago for $1.65 million (less than asking price). With ALL those Student Loans - Where did he get the money for the property?

On the same day Rezko's wife, Rita, purchased the adjoining empty lot for full price. The London Times reported that Nadhmi Auchi, an Iraqi-born Billionaire loaned Rezko $3.5 million three weeks before Obama's new home was purchased. Obama met Nadhmi Auchi many times with Rezko.

Now, we have Obama running for President. Valerie Jarrett, was Michele Obama's boss. She is now Obama's chief advisor and he does not make any major decisions without talking to her first. Where was Jarrett born? Ready for this? Shiraz, Iran! Do we see a pattern here? Or am I going crazy?

On May 10, 2008 The Times reported, Robert Malley advisor to Obama was "sacked" after the press found out he was having regular contacts with "Hamas", which controls Gaza and is connected with Iran. This past week, buried in the back part of the papers, Iraqi newspapers reported that during Obama's visit to Iraq, he asked their leaders to do nothing about the war until after he is elected, and he will "Take care of things".

Oh, and by the way, remember the college roommates that where born in Pakistan? They are in charge of all those "small" Internet campaign contribution for Obama. Where is that money coming from? The poor and middle class in this country? Or could it be from the Middle East?

And the final bit of news. On September 7, 2008, The Washington Times posted a verbal slip that was made on "This Week" with George Stephanapoulos. Obama on talking about his religion said, "My Muslim faith". When questioned, "he make a mistake". Some mistake!

All of the above information I got on line. If you would like to check it - Wikipedia, encyclopedia, Barack Obama; Tony Rezko; Valerie Jarrett: Daily Times - Obama visited Pakistan in 1981; The Washington Times - September 7, 2008; The Times May 10, 2008.

Now the BIG question - If I found out all this information on my own, Why haven't all of our "intelligent" members of the press been reporting this?

A phrase that keeps ringing in my ear - "Beware of the enemy from within"!!! "

Anonymous

Regarding Obama - follow the money.

The media giants need viewers and readers.

Obama is an interesting 'rags to riches' story. McCain is a boring old white guy.

With the news media, it ain't about politics; it's about ratings and MONEY.

They're doing what they did to Clinton; they're gonna help build him up, get him elected and later, they'll make tabloid fodder out him.

They’ll be like Capt. Renault in the movie ‘Casablanca.’ They’ll be shocked, shocked that there’s gambling in Casablanca!

The media gets him going up and they get him coming down. Talk about a win-win!

Question: Who investigates the news media?

Answer: NOBODY. To do so would tend to breach the First Amendment.

Anonymous

Why do so many feel the stories about O'Bama ar lie's. The facts are in get real...... He his NOT good.

Anonymous

WOULDN'T IT BE GREAT TO TURN ON THE TV AND HEAR ANY U.S. PRESIDENT, DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN GIVE THE FOLLOWING SPEECH?
'My Fellow Americans: As you all know, the defeat of the Iraq regime has been completed.

Since Congress does not want to spend any more money on this war, our mission in Iraq is complete.

This morning I gave the order for a complete removal of all American forces from Iraq This action will be complete within 30 days. It i s now time to begin the reckoning.

Before me, I have two lists. One list contains the names of countries which have stood by our side during the Iraq conflict. This list is short. The United Kingdom, Spain, Bulgaria, Australia , and Poland are some of the countries listed there.

The other list contains every one not on the first list. Most of the world's nations are on that list. My press secretary will be distributing copies of both lists later this evening.

Let me start by saying that effective immediately, foreign aid to those nations on List 2 ceases immediately and indefinitely. The money saved during the first year alone will pretty much pay for the costs of the Iraqi war. THEN EVERY YEAR THERE AFTER IT'll GO TO OUR SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM SO IT WONT GO BROK E IN 20 YEARS.

The American people are no longer going to pour money into third world Hell holes and watch those government leaders grow fat on corruption.

Need help with a famine? Wrestling with an epidemic? Call France .

In the future, together with Congress, I will work to redirect this money toward solving the vexing social problems we still have at home. On that note, a word to terrorist organizations. Screw with us and we will hunt you down and eliminate you and all your friends from the face of the earth.

Thirsting for a gutsy country to terrorize? Try France or maybe China

I am ordering the immediate severing of diplomatic relations with Fra nce, Germany, and Russia. Thanks for all your help, comrades. We are retiring from NATO as well. Bonne chance, mes amies.

I have instructed the Mayor of New York City to begin towing the many UN diplomatic vehicles located in Manhattan with more than two unpaid parking tickets to sites where those vehicles will be stripped, shredded and crushed. I don't care about whatever treaty pertains to this. You creeps have tens of thousands of unpaid tickets. Pay those tickets tomorrow or watch your precious Benzes, Beamers and limos be turned over to some of the finest chop shops in the world. I love New York.

A special note to our neighbors. Canada is on List 2. Since we are likely to be seeing a lot more of each other, you folks might want to try not pissing us off for a change.

Mexico is also on List 2 its president and his entire corrupt government really need an attitude adjustment. I will have a couple extra thousand tanks and infantry divisions sitting around. Guess where I am going to put 'em? Yep, border security.

Oh, by the way, the United States is abrogating the NAFTA treaty - starting now.

We are tired of the one-way highway.
Im mediately, we'll be drilling for oil in Alaska- which will take care of this country's oil needs for decades to come. If you're an environmentalist who opposes this decision, I refer you to List 2 above: pick a country and move there.

It is time for America to focus on its own welfare and its own citizens. Some will accuse us of isolationism. I answer them by saying, 'darn tootin.'

Nearly a century of trying to help folks live a decent life around the world has only earned us the undying enmity of just about everyone on the planet. It is time to eliminate hunger in America It is time to eliminate homelessness in America. To the nations on List 1, a final thought. Thank you guys. We owe you and we won't forget.

To the nations on List 2, a final thought: You might want to learn to speak Arabic.

God bless America .. Thank you and good night.'

If you can read this, thank a teacher. If you are reading it in English, thank a soldier.

Anonymous

You make a very interesting point and one that we know will go on deaths ear.

People don't care. They want change so bad they will sell there country out and ignore all the signs before them. Like you said, "Beware of the enemy from within"!!!

Anonymous

Fact NRA gave McCain a C rating and oB an F

Anonymous

'He (Obama) will respect your Second Amendment rights even as he regulates firearms! He will renegotiate Nafta, even as he supports free trade!'

What??? You don't 'believe' him?

Read 'Obama's Magic':

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB...

Anonymous

If u are made to pick the lesser of two evils u r still picking evil. blah blah the economy is sh!t, the crimanls ar running wild, the jails are full, the cops have no money, but the elite want a´NEW WORLD ORDER. My point is we need to stop fighting each other black white brown chinc we to come together and fight our corruptied goverment before they control everything we do (Big brother, cashless society (no paper money))wake up america it is right in front of u. stand up and Unite and fight the goverment this is the true enemy. The police that have taser are criminals. U all have to get made first and say "I am mad and I will not take it anymore" never trust the goverment. They all lie

Anonymous

Obama keeps preaching about change.. Do you know what that means? C.H.A.N.G.E. Come Help A N i g g a Get Elected!!!

Anonymous

obama can kiss my butt

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