Ohio: Vote is crucial - but who are your voters?

Tommie Jo Marsilio is a former union shop steward. She's a single mom. And she's a Mitt Romney voter.
Associated Press
Oct 30, 2012

"It's not my job to shatter stereotypes," she says. But she is. Two years ago she became the first Republican elected to the local county commission as part of a Republican wave in an Ohio county that Barack Obama won in 2008.

From the candidates' campaign headquarters in Boston and Chicago, the electorate looks like a series of demographic groups. Voters become bar charts — women and union members for Obama, men and retirees for Romney, all part of the metrics to measure turnout and make educated guesses about outcome. But on the ground in this battleground of battleground states, with early voting well under way, the reality can complicate the science and generalization.

In a race this close, how well Romney and the president target their voters, sway independent ones and get them to the Ohio polls might well determine the outcome of next Tuesday's election. But people often don't match the voter profiles.

Take John Petelin, a 43-year-old skilled tradesman, a white male who voted for a third-party candidate instead of Obama in 2008.

He might be expected to line up behind Romney. But he isn't.

"I'm an autoworker," Petelin said outside the Lorain County Board of Elections building where he had just voted for Obama. "It's been tough out there. And Romney wanted to kill us. I can't go for that."

Or Kris Donofrio, a mother with three children in college. Standing by her car after voting in Lorain, a north-central Ohio city west of Cleveland, she scoffs at Romney's suggestion that kids can borrow for school from their parents.

But her parents, staunch Democrats she said, are voting for Romney. "They're concerned about Medicare," she said. "They think Obamacare is not for them."

Ohio voters like these are steadily making their way into county polling places across the state, casting early ballots that will determine whether Ohio will serve as a Democratic firewall against Romney's advance or a fire pit where the president's candidacy will perish.

Across the country, about 15 million voters already have cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. In Ohio, about a million have submitted absentee ballots or voted in person.

With just a week left before Election Day, Obama holds some clear edges in Ohio, not the least of which is an advantage in the early vote and a robust get-out-the-vote organization. He holds a narrow lead in some public polls in the state, though others show a neck-and-neck race as the campaign tightens in the homestretch.

Obama's political outreach, built on the broad base of support from 2008, is extensive and frequent. The auto industry, boosted by the government bailout, is resurgent.

In an interview with Cincinnati radio station WIZF that aired on Monday, Obama laid out the early vote strategy.

"We really want to bank as many votes as possible," he said. "So the fewer people who haven't voted yet, the better our Election Day operation is going to be."

But Romney, energized and locked in a dead heat nationally with the president, is mounting his own aggressive voter contact effort, partly counting on the inroads Republicans made in the state in 2010 and seeking to capitalize on discontent toward Obama among many independent voters. In county after county, campaign aides say, more Republicans are taking steps to vote early than did in 2008.

In Ohio so far, Democrats have a 31 percent to 24 percent lead among voters who have cast ballots in 50 of the state's 88 counties, according to data collected by The Associated Press. Forty-five percent of early voters in those counties were unaffiliated.

Those numbers have limitations. Party affiliation is based on the last primary in which someone voted, so new voters and those who don't vote in primaries are listed as unaffiliated.

A poll by Time magazine last week had Obama's advantage over Romney among early voters at 60-30 across the state.

And internal Republican polls also show Obama with leads even in Republican-leaning parts of the state, increasing the burden on Romney to do well on Election Day.

"We have seen a slight Democratic advantage in key districts in early and absentee votes," said Wes Anderson, a Republican pollster who has conducted surveys in congressional races in Ohio. "Those who have yet to vote are clearly trending Romney's way. The question is, is this movement toward Romney happening fast enough and big enough to overcome the slight deficit that he now has in early voting."

Romney advisers say they see signs that outside the big, populous counties, Romney could benefit from a wave of conservative voters as President George W. Bush did in 2004.

"Rural counties are really coming home," Romney political director Rich Beeson said. "You see it in early absentee and you see it in the intensity level. That's where we're going to make some ground."

Obama aides say the early turnout in Ohio is higher in counties that voted for him in 2008 than it is in precincts that voted for Republican John McCain that year.

Yet, a number of counties where Obama won four years ago, including Hamilton County in the Cincinnati suburbs, Stark County south of Cleveland and Portage County where Kent State University is located and where Marsilio is a commissioner, voted for Republican Gov. John Kasich and Republican U.S. Sen. Rob Portman in 2010.

Besides Ohio, the eight other battlegrounds where the candidates are spending time and money are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin.

So far, Democratic voters casting early ballots outnumber Republicans in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. Republican voters have the edge in Colorado. No votes will be counted until Nov. 6, but several battleground states report the party affiliation of people who have already cast ballots. Some, like Ohio, have large blocs of unaffiliated voters.

In North Carolina, more than 1.5 million people have cast ballots, 50 percent of them Democrats and 31 percent Republicans. In Iowa, about 471,000 people have already voted — 45 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. About 433,000 voters in Nevada have cast ballots, 45 percent Democrats and 37 percent Republicans.

In Florida, about 1.8 million voters have cast ballots and Democrats have edged in front of Republicans, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to a tally by the AP. Republicans had the early lead among people who voted by mail, but the Obama campaign has made a big push since in-person early voting started Saturday.

About 804,000 voters have cast ballots in Colorado, and Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats, 39 percent to 36 percent.

 

Comments

sanduskysteve

No answer? Change subject - I think the subject at this point was Jeep moving everything to China. But that's ok - I understand teh etch-a-sketch mentality - been watching it for a year now.

OMG.LOL.WT_

http://www.forbes.com/sites/adam...

Want a Better Economy? History Says Vote Democrat!

Randy_Marsh

Want to keep your civil rights? History says vote for anyone but democrats. (Along with any other rights)
http://stolenhistory.org/viral/

The Big Dog's back

What civil rights have been taken away?

Randy_Marsh

http://www.aclu.org/national-sec... If they drone kill you that is taking away ALL of your rights. Indefinate incarceration with no trial http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9... Even MSNBC doesnt think its a good idea. Any more questions Dog?

The Big Dog's back

marshy, where were the drone attacks in the US? I must have missed them.

Randy_Marsh

Nah they are just killing kids overseas. Bet you are proud.

sanduskysteve

that is yet another bit of propagation spread by the republicans. The law actually says that it does not override existing laws for US citizens. Come on you can do better than this - can't you? How many has actually read the complete law you are bashing left and right?

the office cat

When was the Civil Rights Act passed? Ah 1964 and signed by who? Ah Democrat Lyndon Johnson.
Woman suffrage passed when? 1919. President? Democrat Woodrow Wilson.
32 state laws against abortion/reproductive rights passed when? 2011-2012 by whom? Republicans in numerous states.

Contango

@ OMG.LOL.WT_:

And this from someone who would like to see Wall St. destroyed. LOL.

Correlation, not causality.

The economy is far more dependent upon Fed monetary policy.

The Big Dog's back

orangatango, I want to know right now why Hurricane Sandy struck the US.

Contango

@ brutus:

Wait for Pres. Obama's press conference, he'll be 'more than happy' to tell ya all about it.

Probably have a few personal interest stories to share with ya too.

KnuckleDragger

Naw, he'll just blame it on Bush, just like Katrina.

Randy_Marsh

Watch the weather channel and get a clue.

The Big Dog's back

mittwit robme and the Repubs denial of global warming caused this.

4shizzle

Yes contango-- please tell us.
Why did Hurricane Sandy strike the US?
It's Obama's fault isn't it?
Is the WH covering that up too?
I'll be waiting for the offical report.

Kimo

@Knuck

u spent 21 years? on the taxpayers dime, you get a retirement check on the tax payers dime. You spend way too much time pissingintheshoes of 50% of the people that pay taxes to support u.......

KnuckleDragger

Sorry pops, I still pay taxes. I see you are still making idiotic comments. Because we know retired enlisted get a large enough retirement check to support them. Most of my retirement comes from investments I made while in the military and the money I invested through FERS which by the way costs you nothing since the government does not contribute to military members FERS accounts. By the way, the only shoes I'm pissing in are the people collecting a gov't check who have never worked a day in their life to earn it. I don't recall ever saying anything about getting rid of SS or Medicare, only that reforms need to be made to make it solvent. You may not like Romneys plan but at least he has one versus Obama's, which is to continue kicking the can down the road until it goes over the cliff.

Contango

@ Kimo:

Why? Like he didn't work for it like a pension with retirement benefits?

You're wealthy compared to most, why don't you donate your SS check to charity?

There is no trust fund for your Medicare and SS; that's funded by people who are working now.

The "trust funds" are just accounting gimmicks.

Kimo

You want the people in OH to trust romney....
They trusted kasich and look where that got them.....

Randy_Marsh

A lower unemployment rate? http://www.bizjournals.com/colum...

Contango

@ RM:

Zingo! :)

Dontcha love it how the libs want to have it both ways and down the middle?

OMG.LOL.WT_

"And this from someone who would like to see Wall St. destroyed. LOL."

To whom are you referring, Contango? Are you grasping at straws?

I never advocated such a thing.

goofus

Nice try at DNC spin Office BotCat. Obozo never stopped any war. The status of forces agreement signed by Bush and MalWicki (SP)? years before called for the pullout date. Google it bot!

mikel

great reading!! see what is on the horizon for ohioians and their health insurance premiums. catastrophic rate increases in store if obamacare is not repealed. i know that most democraps won't be able to decipher this but go ahead and give it a try.

http://www.ohioexchange.ohio.gov...

The Big Dog's back

I'm not sure why you keep posting Conservative site things.

mikel

vs left winged site things?

Randy_Marsh

Dog
The link is to Ohio.gov. You look to the government as your god why wouldnt you trust it unless you would instead believe what MSNBC, Huffington and a community organizer tells you to think when it doesnt agree with your reality? If you are a example of Obama supporter you need to scream somthing about free phones now and then on a street corner so you are easier to spot and we can all avoid you.

sanduskysteve

I'll give you that the link is on the Ohio gov website - but the report is certainly NOT done by Ohio gov. Now, from what I read in the report - the insurance premiums will not increase as much as they have been recently - also it appears that the state of Ohio will be making a profit from the exchanges and Ohio residents who participate will be insured instead of others paying for their healthcare in the the ERs. Seems like a win win to me. Also, just in case it is still on the republican agenda to scare people - you DO NOT HAVE TO PARTICIPATE in the exchanges - you can keep what you have. And I noticed the chart showing that employer group benefit thru the exchange will actually only increase the current costs to those employers by about 1% - NOT this horrific nonsense that has been spread around. In fact, it would seem to me, than any employer who cancels their employee benefit healthcare is really not thinking very much - they can still use that cost as a tax deduction. I thought republicans loved tax deductions (for themselves) and that would make this cost neutral to employers. If they are going to lay off people - fire people - and stop covering them - then the employers are doing it for no other reason than to punish their employees for voting for Obama becasue the ACA does not effect their bottom line one bit. Unless they opt to stay with a current insurer. they don't have to - they can use the exchange and have no change in costs and still provide insurance to their employees. It's not Obama's fault if the employer you work for is a stupid republican.

Darwin's choice

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