Ohio: Vote is crucial - but who are your voters?

Tommie Jo Marsilio is a former union shop steward. She's a single mom. And she's a Mitt Romney voter.
Associated Press
Oct 30, 2012

"It's not my job to shatter stereotypes," she says. But she is. Two years ago she became the first Republican elected to the local county commission as part of a Republican wave in an Ohio county that Barack Obama won in 2008.

From the candidates' campaign headquarters in Boston and Chicago, the electorate looks like a series of demographic groups. Voters become bar charts — women and union members for Obama, men and retirees for Romney, all part of the metrics to measure turnout and make educated guesses about outcome. But on the ground in this battleground of battleground states, with early voting well under way, the reality can complicate the science and generalization.

In a race this close, how well Romney and the president target their voters, sway independent ones and get them to the Ohio polls might well determine the outcome of next Tuesday's election. But people often don't match the voter profiles.

Take John Petelin, a 43-year-old skilled tradesman, a white male who voted for a third-party candidate instead of Obama in 2008.

He might be expected to line up behind Romney. But he isn't.

"I'm an autoworker," Petelin said outside the Lorain County Board of Elections building where he had just voted for Obama. "It's been tough out there. And Romney wanted to kill us. I can't go for that."

Or Kris Donofrio, a mother with three children in college. Standing by her car after voting in Lorain, a north-central Ohio city west of Cleveland, she scoffs at Romney's suggestion that kids can borrow for school from their parents.

But her parents, staunch Democrats she said, are voting for Romney. "They're concerned about Medicare," she said. "They think Obamacare is not for them."

Ohio voters like these are steadily making their way into county polling places across the state, casting early ballots that will determine whether Ohio will serve as a Democratic firewall against Romney's advance or a fire pit where the president's candidacy will perish.

Across the country, about 15 million voters already have cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. In Ohio, about a million have submitted absentee ballots or voted in person.

With just a week left before Election Day, Obama holds some clear edges in Ohio, not the least of which is an advantage in the early vote and a robust get-out-the-vote organization. He holds a narrow lead in some public polls in the state, though others show a neck-and-neck race as the campaign tightens in the homestretch.

Obama's political outreach, built on the broad base of support from 2008, is extensive and frequent. The auto industry, boosted by the government bailout, is resurgent.

In an interview with Cincinnati radio station WIZF that aired on Monday, Obama laid out the early vote strategy.

"We really want to bank as many votes as possible," he said. "So the fewer people who haven't voted yet, the better our Election Day operation is going to be."

But Romney, energized and locked in a dead heat nationally with the president, is mounting his own aggressive voter contact effort, partly counting on the inroads Republicans made in the state in 2010 and seeking to capitalize on discontent toward Obama among many independent voters. In county after county, campaign aides say, more Republicans are taking steps to vote early than did in 2008.

In Ohio so far, Democrats have a 31 percent to 24 percent lead among voters who have cast ballots in 50 of the state's 88 counties, according to data collected by The Associated Press. Forty-five percent of early voters in those counties were unaffiliated.

Those numbers have limitations. Party affiliation is based on the last primary in which someone voted, so new voters and those who don't vote in primaries are listed as unaffiliated.

A poll by Time magazine last week had Obama's advantage over Romney among early voters at 60-30 across the state.

And internal Republican polls also show Obama with leads even in Republican-leaning parts of the state, increasing the burden on Romney to do well on Election Day.

"We have seen a slight Democratic advantage in key districts in early and absentee votes," said Wes Anderson, a Republican pollster who has conducted surveys in congressional races in Ohio. "Those who have yet to vote are clearly trending Romney's way. The question is, is this movement toward Romney happening fast enough and big enough to overcome the slight deficit that he now has in early voting."

Romney advisers say they see signs that outside the big, populous counties, Romney could benefit from a wave of conservative voters as President George W. Bush did in 2004.

"Rural counties are really coming home," Romney political director Rich Beeson said. "You see it in early absentee and you see it in the intensity level. That's where we're going to make some ground."

Obama aides say the early turnout in Ohio is higher in counties that voted for him in 2008 than it is in precincts that voted for Republican John McCain that year.

Yet, a number of counties where Obama won four years ago, including Hamilton County in the Cincinnati suburbs, Stark County south of Cleveland and Portage County where Kent State University is located and where Marsilio is a commissioner, voted for Republican Gov. John Kasich and Republican U.S. Sen. Rob Portman in 2010.

Besides Ohio, the eight other battlegrounds where the candidates are spending time and money are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin.

So far, Democratic voters casting early ballots outnumber Republicans in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. Republican voters have the edge in Colorado. No votes will be counted until Nov. 6, but several battleground states report the party affiliation of people who have already cast ballots. Some, like Ohio, have large blocs of unaffiliated voters.

In North Carolina, more than 1.5 million people have cast ballots, 50 percent of them Democrats and 31 percent Republicans. In Iowa, about 471,000 people have already voted — 45 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. About 433,000 voters in Nevada have cast ballots, 45 percent Democrats and 37 percent Republicans.

In Florida, about 1.8 million voters have cast ballots and Democrats have edged in front of Republicans, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to a tally by the AP. Republicans had the early lead among people who voted by mail, but the Obama campaign has made a big push since in-person early voting started Saturday.

About 804,000 voters have cast ballots in Colorado, and Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats, 39 percent to 36 percent.

 

Comments

Darwin's choice

Face reality foolish one.

Darwin's choice

Moderators have removed this comment because it contained Personal attacks (including: name calling, presumption of guilt or guilt by association, insensitivity, or picking fights).

shucks

darwin

Do you really think that I'm going to believe a cut and spliced Republican propaganda video ?

Bush said : Mission acomplished and Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
Cheney said the US would be reimbursed with oil.

I don't believe Obama was lying, like your boys were.

Darwin's choice

What you chose to believe is on you! Next wed. when all the BS is done and Mitt Romney has won, America will start to get back on track from the dismal downward spiral of Obama.....And, Jimmy Carter is still sending Thank You cards to Obama for moving him off the list of presidential failures!

KURTje

Obama will win. The race will be close. Then we will hear of voting fraud & more.........

sanduskysteve

Funny though, the only ones who have been caught committing voter fraud so far as the republicans!

Contango

Enjoyed this part of Mayor Bloomberg's "endorsement" of Pres. Obama:

"In 2008, Obama ran as a pragmatic problem-solver and consensus-builder. But as president, he devoted little time and effort to developing and sustaining a coalition of centrists, which doomed hope for any real progress on illegal guns, immigration, tax reform, job creation and deficit reduction. And rather than uniting the country around a message of shared sacrifice, he engaged in partisan attacks and has embraced a divisive populist agenda focused more on redistributing income than creating it. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20...

------------------------------------

Isn't it good to know that all you Obama loyalists will get to help pay for those rich one percenters' homes on the beach that were destroyed?

They get a new home, a nice ocean view and you get the bill. The socialist joke is on you.

☭ FORWARD SOVIET! ☭

shucks

Vote Romney!!!

The 1% for the 1%ers !!!

Let's get the story straight:

Isn't it good to know that all you Romney loyalists/dumb Repubs will get to help pay for those rich one percenters' homes on the beach that were destroyed?

They get a new home, a nice ocean view and you get the bill. The elitist joke is on you.

Darwin's choice

194,000
194,000 thats the net job creation since Feb 2009

Rick Santelli CNBC added the monthly job numbers including revisions since obama's first month. The net job growth under Obama is 194,000.

This includes McDonalds 100,000 overnight hamburger flippers and 45,000 striking Verizon workers returning to work, to name a few notable statistics.

4 more years, hell Burger king and taco bell might go 24/7...... 150,000 more minimum wage jobs.

shucks

@ contango

I think Sandusky High offers remedial reading courses.

Read the last sentence of the last paragraph of that link you sent.

I enjoyed this part of Mayor Bloomberg's "endorsement" of Pres. Obama too:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/20...

"And that’s why I (Bloomberg) will be voting for him (Obama)."

sanduskysteve

Redistributing wealth has always been the republican backbone of their stance - isn't it? Take from the poor and middle class and give to the rich?? Leveling the playing field is NOT redistributing wealth, it's making the game fair.

Darwin's choice

Timing is everything
It took Barak ,7 days to visit Joplin Mo. after a tornado hit half the town and killed 120 people. It took Barak 14 days to visit the gulf area after the BP spill.
Barak declined to visit Tenn. after the "1000year" floods in 2010.
Barak ignored the west Texas wildfires that leveled over 400 homes.
And ,of course, Barak ignored the calls for help from Bengazi.
But it took Barak only one day to visit the east coast after "Sandy" ...
But then again there is an election next week.

mikel

uuuuuuuttttttttt ooooooohhhhhh. still bush's fault?

"The unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9%."

Contango

@ mikel:

Thanks for the heads up. I forgot about the jobs report comin' out this morning.

Quite a "mixed bag."

I found these two items of interest:

"But unemployment for blacks showed the highest increase in the survey, surging to 14.3 percent from 13.4 percent.

Also, the average duration of unemployment climbed to a 2012 high of 40.2 weeks."

Mr. Bernanke is obviously doin' his best with massive money printing and low interest rates, but monetary policy alone won't carry the economic ball past the goal line.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49657529

Maybe a re-elected Pres. Obama can push for trillions more in massive govt. borrowing and with the magic of Obamanomics, the U.S. can do what has never been done in the history of the world:

Spend our way to prosperity.

FORWARD SOVIET!

shucks

@ contango

Did you hear about how Romney screwed Delphi and the American taxpayers ?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20...

mikel

did you hear how prezo screwed all salary employees at gm and chrysler?

shucks

Hey contango, did you see this?

Congressional Research Service Report On Tax Cuts For Wealthy Suppressed By GOP (UPDATE)

www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/0...

Darwin's choice

194,000
194,000 thats the net job creation since Feb 2009

Rick Santelli CNBC added the monthly job numbers including revisions since obama's first month. The net job growth under Obama is 194,000.

This includes McDonalds 100,000 overnight hamburger flippers and 45,000 striking Verizon workers returning to work, to name a few notable statistics.

4 more years, hell Burger king and taco bell might go 24/7...... 150,000 more minimum wage jobs.

shucks

@ darwins choice

Did you hear about how Romney screwed Delphi and the American taxpayers ?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20...

mikel

did you hear how prezo screwed all salary employees at gm and chrysler?

eriemom

Funny how President Obama is getting blamed for the liquidation of the salary pension right into Romney's pocket.

shucks

Hey darwin! Check this out

Congressional Research Service Report On Tax Cuts For Wealthy Suppressed By GOP (UPDATE)

www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/0...

Darwin's choice

Obamabot blah,blah,blah,........Obama=failure

shucks

Can't handle it can you, Mr. Romboto?

Darwin's choice

Really 4shissle, this child crap??? Are you in the third or fourth grade now?

shucks

No. Are you?

eriemom

More of the same. Republicans trying to make facts go away. This isn't a Huffington Post fact. This is from the Congressional Research Service. As in working for all of us to research topics for the legislative branch of government.

Contango

@ 4shizzle:

The Huffington Post; that's your news source?

After AOL bought 'em, they cut writers salaries and all the good ones left.

Garbage reporting.

sanduskysteve

And AOL is owned by Turner? Another rich guy who is all for cutting wages and jobs.

Randy_Marsh

AOL and time warner merged in 2000 i think.

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