Ohio: Vote is crucial - but who are your voters?

Tommie Jo Marsilio is a former union shop steward. She's a single mom. And she's a Mitt Romney voter.
Associated Press
Oct 30, 2012

"It's not my job to shatter stereotypes," she says. But she is. Two years ago she became the first Republican elected to the local county commission as part of a Republican wave in an Ohio county that Barack Obama won in 2008.

From the candidates' campaign headquarters in Boston and Chicago, the electorate looks like a series of demographic groups. Voters become bar charts — women and union members for Obama, men and retirees for Romney, all part of the metrics to measure turnout and make educated guesses about outcome. But on the ground in this battleground of battleground states, with early voting well under way, the reality can complicate the science and generalization.

In a race this close, how well Romney and the president target their voters, sway independent ones and get them to the Ohio polls might well determine the outcome of next Tuesday's election. But people often don't match the voter profiles.

Take John Petelin, a 43-year-old skilled tradesman, a white male who voted for a third-party candidate instead of Obama in 2008.

He might be expected to line up behind Romney. But he isn't.

"I'm an autoworker," Petelin said outside the Lorain County Board of Elections building where he had just voted for Obama. "It's been tough out there. And Romney wanted to kill us. I can't go for that."

Or Kris Donofrio, a mother with three children in college. Standing by her car after voting in Lorain, a north-central Ohio city west of Cleveland, she scoffs at Romney's suggestion that kids can borrow for school from their parents.

But her parents, staunch Democrats she said, are voting for Romney. "They're concerned about Medicare," she said. "They think Obamacare is not for them."

Ohio voters like these are steadily making their way into county polling places across the state, casting early ballots that will determine whether Ohio will serve as a Democratic firewall against Romney's advance or a fire pit where the president's candidacy will perish.

Across the country, about 15 million voters already have cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University. In Ohio, about a million have submitted absentee ballots or voted in person.

With just a week left before Election Day, Obama holds some clear edges in Ohio, not the least of which is an advantage in the early vote and a robust get-out-the-vote organization. He holds a narrow lead in some public polls in the state, though others show a neck-and-neck race as the campaign tightens in the homestretch.

Obama's political outreach, built on the broad base of support from 2008, is extensive and frequent. The auto industry, boosted by the government bailout, is resurgent.

In an interview with Cincinnati radio station WIZF that aired on Monday, Obama laid out the early vote strategy.

"We really want to bank as many votes as possible," he said. "So the fewer people who haven't voted yet, the better our Election Day operation is going to be."

But Romney, energized and locked in a dead heat nationally with the president, is mounting his own aggressive voter contact effort, partly counting on the inroads Republicans made in the state in 2010 and seeking to capitalize on discontent toward Obama among many independent voters. In county after county, campaign aides say, more Republicans are taking steps to vote early than did in 2008.

In Ohio so far, Democrats have a 31 percent to 24 percent lead among voters who have cast ballots in 50 of the state's 88 counties, according to data collected by The Associated Press. Forty-five percent of early voters in those counties were unaffiliated.

Those numbers have limitations. Party affiliation is based on the last primary in which someone voted, so new voters and those who don't vote in primaries are listed as unaffiliated.

A poll by Time magazine last week had Obama's advantage over Romney among early voters at 60-30 across the state.

And internal Republican polls also show Obama with leads even in Republican-leaning parts of the state, increasing the burden on Romney to do well on Election Day.

"We have seen a slight Democratic advantage in key districts in early and absentee votes," said Wes Anderson, a Republican pollster who has conducted surveys in congressional races in Ohio. "Those who have yet to vote are clearly trending Romney's way. The question is, is this movement toward Romney happening fast enough and big enough to overcome the slight deficit that he now has in early voting."

Romney advisers say they see signs that outside the big, populous counties, Romney could benefit from a wave of conservative voters as President George W. Bush did in 2004.

"Rural counties are really coming home," Romney political director Rich Beeson said. "You see it in early absentee and you see it in the intensity level. That's where we're going to make some ground."

Obama aides say the early turnout in Ohio is higher in counties that voted for him in 2008 than it is in precincts that voted for Republican John McCain that year.

Yet, a number of counties where Obama won four years ago, including Hamilton County in the Cincinnati suburbs, Stark County south of Cleveland and Portage County where Kent State University is located and where Marsilio is a commissioner, voted for Republican Gov. John Kasich and Republican U.S. Sen. Rob Portman in 2010.

Besides Ohio, the eight other battlegrounds where the candidates are spending time and money are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia and Wisconsin.

So far, Democratic voters casting early ballots outnumber Republicans in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. Republican voters have the edge in Colorado. No votes will be counted until Nov. 6, but several battleground states report the party affiliation of people who have already cast ballots. Some, like Ohio, have large blocs of unaffiliated voters.

In North Carolina, more than 1.5 million people have cast ballots, 50 percent of them Democrats and 31 percent Republicans. In Iowa, about 471,000 people have already voted — 45 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. About 433,000 voters in Nevada have cast ballots, 45 percent Democrats and 37 percent Republicans.

In Florida, about 1.8 million voters have cast ballots and Democrats have edged in front of Republicans, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to a tally by the AP. Republicans had the early lead among people who voted by mail, but the Obama campaign has made a big push since in-person early voting started Saturday.

About 804,000 voters have cast ballots in Colorado, and Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats, 39 percent to 36 percent.

 

Comments

Contango

Huh. It looks like even ABC is starting to wonder about the Benghazi "terrorist attack."

"The Benghazi Drip-Drip-Drip":

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/poli...

Hopefully, Mr. Obama can keep it covered up until Tues. - that's all that's important to the Campaigner-in-Chief.

reese

I read the same article earlier this evening. My favorite part was:
"Without question in this hyper-partisan environment, Republicans operatives are fanning flames and creating suspicions where there’s no evidence of wrongdoing, trafficking in false rumors and idle speculation."

Randy_Marsh

Unlike the paid bloggers from the whitehouse who are completely devoted to creeping around sites fanning the flames of the liberals huh? Only difference is Obama pays his lackeys.

reese

I guess this is your opinion Randy, and you, for what ever reason, are entitled to it.

Randy_Marsh

Not really a opinion at all, More of a fact. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20...

reese

Partial fact, partial opinion inserted (yours: "fanning the flames of liberals").

Randy_Marsh

reese
Have you ever encountered one? I have they are rabid as they come. Its neat watching them work though, They can drum up the rhetoric to record heights. When i say "Fanning the flames" they get paid to do it and thats exactly what they get good at.

shucks

@ marsh
Hey! Check this out, you like this site,right?

Congressional Research Service Report On Tax Cuts For Wealthy Suppressed By GOP (UPDATE)

www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/0...

Randy_Marsh

4shizzle
The GOA and the CBO have already covered it and seeing is the CRS is a inside agency and their reports are not to be released to the public why would anyone pressure them to do anything, The congressmen refuse to even read the bills before signing them?

shucks

Marsh

Nice smoke, but isn't this the point :"...lowering marginal tax rates for the wealthiest Americans had no effect on economic growth or job creation."?

Randy_Marsh

4shizzle
So does raising the marginal tax rate create economic growth or push it overseas as we have seen in the last decade? The rich are rich because they can wiggle around the tax laws and can move their businesses overseas where it is more viable to have a company with profits and the burden will be left to you and me. The government cannot create jobs, They can only make the enviorment good or bad for companys to move here.

sanduskysteve

Oh but Romney claims HIS government will create jobs - tons of them.

shucks

And Romney pays his with IOU's ?
That's the Republican Way.

Contango

@ reese:

"Rumors"? What do you expect?

So other than "spontaneous demonstration" and "video," what has the WH told the American people?

Darwin's choice

Sign on my neighbors front door yesterday..."PARENTS, anyone with an Obama costume on will have to turn all candy collected over to be re-distributed to others who aren't trick or treating for themselves".......his windows were soaped so bad you couldn't see out of them.............even children know!!!!

2cents

And when Obo looses they will riot like they said they would too? True Americains, not!

Children know what their parents tell them to know, and or what they see day to day in their parents actions.

Just saying!

KURTje

Coasterfan - national champ. ontango - defeated.

Darwin's choice

I hear that Obama has gotten a truckload of Thank You cards from President Carter......!

shucks

@ Contango,

I love listening to your broken record collection.

They must be all warped by the way they skip, slide, and get stuck.

Darwin's choice

4shizzle.....about broken records....have a listen......http://thehayride.com/2012/09/ma...

shucks

darwin

I know it's very foreign to you, but it's called : consistency, a plan, a steady course of action, realism, honesty --- all the things that your flip-flopping,shape-shifting boy Romney, DOESN'T have.

Darwin's choice

So, consistantly down the drain, a steady leak, socialism, dishonesty.....something Obama has plenty of...

shucks

I like your broken records too.
They are so amusing.

mikel

it is interesting that one of prezo's big supporters, ellen degeneres(sp) did something very odd. in a nice gesture she recently gave a member of the military a new automobile to replace his clunker. the auto: a hyundai!!!! lmao!! not a gm or chrysler.

shucks

.

Darwin's choice

4shizzle.....for you.....http://youtu.be/gsa4uLmTw0M

Darwin's choice

Pay attention to the above video.....it's not a record(lp) for you to listen to, and it's certianly not a record for anyone (especialy Obama) to have...but it's his!

shucks

Did you hear about how Romney screwed Delphi and the American taxpayers ?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20...

Darwin's choice

You really want to talk about screwing the American taxpayers? Obama...16 trillion.....end of all BS talks.......

shucks

Moderators have removed this comment because it contained Personal attacks (including: name calling, presumption of guilt or guilt by association, insensitivity, or picking fights).

Pages